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CNN —Extraordinary global heat continues its streak. It marks 11 consecutive months of unprecedented global temperatures. With that new data point, some scientists warn there is a strong chance 2024 could beat 2023 as the warmest year on record. Global ocean heat in April was also record-breaking for the 13th consecutive month. And while heat records are still being set month after month, the margins at which they are being broken are smaller than they were in 2023.
Persons: Copernicus, Adnan Abidi, Lisa Marie David, El Niño, Niño, it’s, Zeke Hausfather, ” Hausfather, Indranil Aditya, , Carlo Buontempo Organizations: CNN, Reuters, Getty Locations: Asia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Barmer, Rajasthan, Manila, Philippines, Berkeley, Mumbai
The National Climate Assessment, which comes out every four to five years, was released Tuesday with details that bring climate change's impacts down to a local level. Compared to earlier national assessments, this year’s uses far stronger language and “unequivocally” blames the burning of coal, oil and gas for climate change. In the Midwest, both extreme drought and flooding threaten crops and animal production, which can affect the global food supply. “Climate change is finally moving from an abstract future issue to a present, concrete, relevant issue. Five years ago, when the last assessment was issued, fewer people were experiencing climate change firsthand.
Persons: , Zeke Hausfather, Kim Cobb, , of Colorado's Waleed Abdalati, Katharine Hayhoe, they'd, Hayhoe, there's, Colorado's Abdalati, Arati Prabhakar, Hausfather, Rob Jackson, ” ___ Borenstein, Webber, Seth Borenstein, Tammy Webber Organizations: Berkeley, midcentury, U.S ., Brown University, AP, of Colorado's, NASA, Nature Conservancy, Texas Tech University ., Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Colorado's, Biden, White, ” Stanford University, Twitter Locations: United States, Alaska, Great, Hawaii, U.S, U.S . Caribbean, Brown, America, Kensington , Maryland, Fenton , Michigan
Last month’s average temperature was 0.93 degrees Celsius (1.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1991-2020 average for September. “This is not a fancy weather statistic,” Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto said in an email. This past September was 1.75 degrees Celsius (3.15 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the mid-1800s, Copernicus reported. The world agreed in 2015 to try to limit future warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming since pre-industrial times. “This month was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist – absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Persons: , , Copernicus, Carlo Buontempo, Friederike Otto, Samantha Burgess, Jessica Moerman, El Nino, Buontempo, ” Otto, Zeke Hausfather, ___ Read, Seth Borenstein Organizations: Imperial College of London, El Nino, Evangelical Environmental, Twitter, AP Locations: U.S
CNN —The Northern Hemisphere may be transitioning into fall, but there has been no let up from extreme heat. New data shows last month was the hottest September – the fourth consecutive month of such unprecedented heat – putting 2023 firmly on track to be the hottest year in recorded history. That’s well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold to which countries aim to limit global warming under the Paris Climate Agreement. The extreme September “has pushed 2023 into the dubious honor of first place – on track to be the warmest year and around 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial average temperatures,” Burgess said. The significant margin by which heat records are being broken matters, she told CNN.
Persons: Copernicus, , Samantha Burgess, Paulo Amorim, Zeke Hausfather, Maximiliano Herrera, ” Herrera, Chris Ratcliffe, ” Burgess, El Niño, Friederike Otto, ” Otto Organizations: CNN, Bloomberg, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Grantham Institute, Climate, , United Locations: Paris, Libya, Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey, Canada, South America, York, Brazil, Spain, Poland, Austria, France, Europe, London, Dubai, United Nations, COP28
"Over 90 percent of the excess energy on earth due to climate change is found in warmer oceans, some of it in surface oceans and some at depth." Put simply, the greenhouse gases serve to trap more heat, some of which is absorbed by the ocean," Kirtman told CNBC. In addition to the daily record on July 31, the monthly sea surface temperature for July was the hottest July on record, "by far," Copernicus said. CopernicusThese record sea surface temperatures arise from multiple factors, including the El Niño weather pattern, which is currently in effect. "These climate variations occur when sea surface temperature patterns of warming and cooling self-reinforce by changing patterns of winds and precipitation that deepen the sea surface temperature changes."
Persons: Baylor, Carlos E, Del Castillo, Castillo, Benjamin Kirtman, Kirtman, Copernicus, Gavin Schmidt, Kemper, Zeke Hausfather, Sarah Kapnick, Kapnick, Kempler, Hurricane Ian, Michael Lowry, Lowry, Rainer Froese, Daniel Pauly, Pauly, Vigfus, pollack, Sean Gallup, Lorenz Hauser, Hauser, Froese, Phanor Montoya, Javier, Carolyn Cole, Hans W, Paerl, Justin Sullivan, Christopher Gobler, Gobler, Gary Griggs, Kimberly McKenna, Angela Weiss, Griggs, it's, Judith Kildow, Kildow, It's Organizations: International, Baylor Fox, Kemper, Brown University, CNBC, Ecology Laboratory, NASA, University of Miami, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Fox, El, Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, heatwave, NOAA, Northern Hemisphere, Miami Herald, Tribune, Service, Getty, Helmholtz, Ocean Research, University of British Columbia's Institute, Fisheries, School of, Fishery Sciences, Restoration Foundation, Coral Restoration Foundation, Looe Key, Los Angeles Times, University of North, Chapel Hill's Institute of Marine Sciences, Berkeley Marina, San, Quality, Centers for Disease Control, Stony Brooke University's School of Marine, Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Stockton University Coastal Research, Afp, Ocean Economics Locations: Florida, El, Pacific, Berkeley, Fort Myers, Hurricane, Germany, New York, Nova Scotia, Hofn, Hornafjordur, Iceland, Seattle, Alaska, Looe, University of North Carolina, San Francisco Bay, Berkeley , California, San Francisco, Europe, Santa Cruz, Atlantic City , New Jersey, Atlantic City, Antarctica, Greenland
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on July 31, 2023 –6°F 0° +6° +9° Atlantic Ocean Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on July 31, 2023 –6°F 0° +6° +9°What This Year’s ‘Astonishing’ Ocean Heat Means for the PlanetBrutal heat waves have baked the world this summer and they haven’t been contained to land. Note: Average sea surface temperatures for ocean areas between 60 degrees north and 60 degrees south latitude are shown. The planet’s average sea surface temperature spiked to a record high in April and the ocean has remained exceptionally warm ever since. Some have suggested that international rules aimed at reducing air pollution from maritime shipping could have inadvertently increased ocean warming. Warmer ocean temperatures also provide more fodder for tropical cyclones and atmospheric river storms.
Persons: Jan, , Gregory Johnson, El, Michelle L’Heureux, Zeke Hausfather, Hausfather, El Niño, von Schuckmann, Dr, Johnson Organizations: Mar, University of Maine, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Locations: Atlantic, Florida, Berkeley, Tonga
On Tuesday, global average temperatures rose to a new high of 62.9 degrees Fahrenheit. But, he added, there may be other factors layered on top of human-caused warming that have helped drive temperatures up so dramatically in recent months. For instance, a cyclical phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation causes year-to-year fluctuations by shifting heat in and out of deeper ocean layers. Global surface temperatures tend to be somewhat cooler during La Niña years and somewhat hotter during El Niño years. “A big reason we’re seeing so many records shattered is that we’re transitioning out of an unusually long three-year La Niña, which suppressed temperatures a bit, and into a strong El Niño,” Dr. Hausfather said.
Persons: Zeke Hausfather, El, , Hausfather Organizations: Service, Berkeley, Southern
July 4 - Monday, July 3, was the hottest day ever recorded globally, according to data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The average global temperature reached 17.01 degrees Celsius (62.62 Fahrenheit), surpassing the August 2016 record of 16.92C (62.46F) as heatwaves sizzled around the world. Ukraine's Vernadsky Research Base in the white continent's Argentine Islands recently broke its July temperature record with 8.7C (47.6F). "This is not a milestone we should be celebrating," said climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Britain's Imperial College London. Scientists said climate change, combined with an emerging El Nino pattern, were to blame.
Persons: Friederike Otto of, Zeke Hausfather, Gloria Dickie, Mark Potter Organizations: U.S . National Centers for Environmental, Vernadsky Research, Argentine Islands, Grantham Institute, Climate, Britain's Imperial College London, El Nino, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, North Africa, Antarctica, Argentine, El, Berkeley
SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONSGlobal surface temperatures are heavily influenced by annual Pacific Ocean patterns known as El Nino and La Nina, and collectively as ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). A large El Nino event followed by a La Nina can “lead to a temporary ‘pause’ in global temperatures over timescales of a decade or so”, Hausfather said. This is “what we are now seeing after the 2015/2016 super El Nino event”. Whenever there is a trend with variability like global temperatures, “you can isolate cherry-picked intervals and claim that something has paused or accelerated, but this is not appropriate”, Colose said. Temperature data for the past eight years do not reflect long-term trends, experts say, and longer-term data clearly show a continuing rise in overall global temperatures.
Beyond Catastrophe A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View By David Wallace-WellsYou can never really see the future, only imagine it, then try to make sense of the new world when it arrives. (A United Nations report released this week ahead of the COP27 climate conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, confirmed that range.) A little lower is possible, with much more concerted action; a little higher, too, with slower action and bad climate luck. There were climate-change skeptics in some very conspicuous positions of global power. New emissions peaks are expected both this year and next, which means that more damage is being done to the future climate of the planet right now than at any previous point in history.
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